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The situation in Ukraine is “disastrous” as munitions supplies dwindle following the “starvation diet” of the United States and Europe.

Ukraine has been waging a war against Russia for more than two years with defensive aid provided by the United States and its European allies.

But as the war of attrition rages, Russia has recently made small progress and Ukraine has begun to consider the possibility that Washington will not provide more aid.

“It’s pretty disastrous, it’s pretty serious,” George Barros, a Russia analyst and head of the geospatial intelligence team at the Institute for the Study of War, told Fox News Digital of the shortages defense procurement in Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers from a 24th Brigade mortar team are seen on positions near Toretsk, Ukraine, on Tuesday as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)


“The Ukrainians don’t really have what they need to run a more effective defense,” he said. “The collective Western coalition supporting Ukraine ensured that we adequately supplied Ukraine and kept it on a starvation diet.”

“But we also gave them enough so that they would not suffer a catastrophic defeat,” he added.

The Biden administration has pledged continued support for Kyiv, but Congress’s failure to pass substantial assistance measures means Ukrainian soldiers are bearing the brunt on the front lines.

“If they don’t get this critical resupply, then I think there’s a good chance the Russians will be very successful in achieving a breakthrough in 2024,” Barros said.

kyiv and other European allies have repeatedly warned that if Russian President Vladimir Putin manages to gain a foothold in Ukraine, he is unlikely to stop there.

Barros pointed out that although the United States carried the brunt in terms of military aid provided to Ukraine by a single country, Europe significantly increased its spending on defensive aid to Ukraine.

Soldier in Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers conduct combat exercises in the forests of Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on Saturday. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)

kyiv suffers third bombing in 5 days as Russia steps up targeting of Ukrainian cities

“The European Union and all its members, including the United Kingdom, actually spend more than the United States just on defense, in terms of support for Ukraine,” he said. “Unfortunately, when the Europeans open a new artillery or munitions factory, it’s not something… that goes into operation immediately.”

“You don’t flip a switch and all of a sudden you get a huge return,” he added. “It takes years.”

“But the United States, until these factories become fully operational, must continue to play this strategic bridge role,” Barros said.

It was not just the lack of ammunition that slowed Ukraine’s ability to advance on Russian lines or prevented it from making small gains.

Ukraine’s air defenses are exhausted.

Not only do Ukraine’s air defense missiles appear to have reached a critical level and its air force has deteriorated after years of fighting with Soviet-era fighter jets, but Russia has begun to carrying out attacks deep inside Ukraine against critical infrastructure.

Soldiers in Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers from a mortar team of the 24th Brigade are seen on positions near Toretsk, Ukraine, on Tuesday. (Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty Images)


Barros explained that the Russian military regularly carries out very intensive bombing campaigns against Ukrainian infrastructure such as dams, power plants and bridges using cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles and ballistic missiles from Iran.

Although Ukraine has some air defense systems provided by international allies, such as the US Patriot missile systems, it does not have enough defenses to protect its internal infrastructure as well as its frontline positions.

“The Russians have demonstrated over the last three months that they are adapting, implementing some lessons learned and actually doing military learning, which is improving the effectiveness and lethality of the army Russian,” Barros said.

“We believe that what the Russians have realized is that if they plan and sequence their major strategic strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, at the same time as they use fighter-bombers to provide support to strikes, air support, ground operations on the front line, … they saturate the bandwidth of Ukrainian air defense,” he added. “(kyiv must) choose between: do they provide cover for front-line positions or do they protect critical infrastructure in major strategic cities?”

Photo taken from a video published by the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry

This photo taken from a video published by the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry on March 13 shows the destruction of a Ukrainian armed forces helicopter at the jump site at an undisclosed location in the Donetsk region, in eastern Ukraine. (Press service of the Russian Defense Ministry via AP)

This strategy allowed Russian pilots to fly combat missions to get closer to Ukraine in order to launch glide bombs, further annihilating Ukrainian positions.


Barros warned that if Russia managed to gain uncontested air superiority, Moscow could begin carrying out massive bombing campaigns as it did in Syria.

“Frankly, there is no reason to doubt that the Russians would not do this,” he said.

Ukraine has largely managed to maintain its positions on the front lines for months, but military experts agree that it will not be able to do so for long.

“Ukraine will lose this war if the United States does not continue to support Ukraine,” Barros said.

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